{
  "status": "Retrospective analysis of externally measured species summaries; not preregistered, independent replication or new NetPhysics measurements.",
  "input_sha256": "36e64314cae0394a966a63b949504d1975ac5c5629e05e36c1b139b3348f044a",
  "analysis_plan_sha256": "4f4456046115d896f277eaf5882ae7f0703769853fdbca637144b7a69b7bec41",
  "counts": {
    "raw_rows": 5416,
    "eligible_species": 573,
    "excluded_rows": 4843,
    "families": 99,
    "training_species": 372,
    "test_species": 201,
    "training_families": 69,
    "test_families": 30,
    "above_10kg_total": 47,
    "above_10kg_train": 35,
    "above_10kg_test": 12,
    "above_10kg_families": 24
  },
  "primary_family_blocked": {
    "M0": {
      "coefficients": [
        0.4731648382820442,
        0.7272883827519053
      ],
      "n_train": 372,
      "parameters_including_variance": 3,
      "residual_sd_dex": 0.22029921266890526,
      "training_log_likelihood": 35.9074823533544,
      "training_aicc": -65.74974731540446,
      "test_rmse_dex": 0.1980947133216643,
      "test_mse_dex2": 0.03924151544599237,
      "test_bias_dex": -0.015850680559149215,
      "training_delta_aicc": 30.180663639996837,
      "training_akaike_weight": 1.5444224392457686e-07
    },
    "M1_10kg": {
      "coefficients": [
        0.4217924571300846,
        0.680639951510911,
        0.3334896786118286
      ],
      "n_train": 372,
      "parameters_including_variance": 4,
      "residual_sd_dex": 0.2114296490633888,
      "training_log_likelihood": 51.69796949708344,
      "training_aicc": -95.28694716855381,
      "test_rmse_dex": 0.20046402086477527,
      "test_mse_dex2": 0.04018582366127306,
      "test_bias_dex": -0.017884484029244658,
      "lower_slope": 0.680639951510911,
      "upper_slope": 1.0141296301227396,
      "slope_change": 0.3334896786118286,
      "training_delta_aicc": 0.6434637868474908,
      "training_akaike_weight": 0.40057842670669747
    },
    "M2_quadratic": {
      "coefficients": [
        0.41155510753143504,
        0.7426321605688484,
        0.043822207890913574
      ],
      "n_train": 372,
      "parameters_including_variance": 4,
      "residual_sd_dex": 0.21265324566940344,
      "training_log_likelihood": 49.55131748074825,
      "training_aicc": -90.99364313588343,
      "test_rmse_dex": 0.19559970523017634,
      "test_mse_dex2": 0.03825924468613187,
      "test_bias_dex": -0.017528378139952908,
      "training_delta_aicc": 4.936767819517868,
      "training_akaike_weight": 0.04681752286283229
    },
    "M1_20kg": {
      "coefficients": [
        0.4283175278079969,
        0.685943268586781,
        0.45536698045900786
      ],
      "n_train": 372,
      "parameters_including_variance": 4,
      "residual_sd_dex": 0.2112468688108017,
      "training_log_likelihood": 52.01970139050719,
      "training_aicc": -95.9304109554013,
      "test_rmse_dex": 0.20310041811099422,
      "test_mse_dex2": 0.04124977983686067,
      "test_bias_dex": -0.019343357488584477,
      "lower_slope": 0.685943268586781,
      "upper_slope": 1.141310249045789,
      "slope_change": 0.45536698045900786,
      "training_delta_aicc": 0.0,
      "training_akaike_weight": 0.5526038959882262
    }
  },
  "bootstrap": {
    "requested": 2000,
    "valid": 2000,
    "rank_deficient": 0,
    "intervals": {
      "M0_minus_M1_test_mse": [
        -0.00946430998574403,
        0.009019726256380978
      ],
      "M2_minus_M1_test_mse": [
        -0.008563559610118038,
        0.004336156590843961
      ],
      "M1_slope_change": [
        0.1692253890629854,
        0.45124415448553556
      ],
      "M1_rmse_fraction_improvement": [
        -0.1418339801658538,
        0.0755576433237314
      ]
    }
  },
  "coverage_gate_pass": true,
  "hinge_vs_single_screen_pass": false,
  "hinge_rmse_fraction_improvement": -0.011960478416522369,
  "species_split_sensitivity": {
    "M0": {
      "coefficients": [
        0.462592695916681,
        0.7197153510941396
      ],
      "n_train": 403,
      "parameters_including_variance": 3,
      "residual_sd_dex": 0.2225230380806542,
      "training_log_likelihood": 34.76829099106658,
      "training_aicc": -63.47643160619331,
      "test_rmse_dex": 0.18641351340117476,
      "test_mse_dex2": 0.034749997978569966,
      "test_bias_dex": -0.0008695931212102985,
      "training_delta_aicc": 17.19688115750177,
      "training_akaike_weight": 9.31945929127038e-05
    },
    "M1_10kg": {
      "coefficients": [
        0.42382069449916,
        0.6857886642594024,
        0.2618506899484048
      ],
      "n_train": 403,
      "parameters_including_variance": 4,
      "residual_sd_dex": 0.2177498133841188,
      "training_log_likelihood": 44.010015776867455,
      "training_aicc": -79.9195290411721,
      "test_rmse_dex": 0.1789411182732912,
      "test_mse_dex2": 0.03201992380889599,
      "test_bias_dex": -0.0016967882260957514,
      "lower_slope": 0.6857886642594024,
      "upper_slope": 0.9476393542078072,
      "slope_change": 0.2618506899484048,
      "training_delta_aicc": 0.7537837225229822,
      "training_akaike_weight": 0.3467080746908209
    },
    "M2_quadratic": {
      "coefficients": [
        0.4158108910822146,
        0.7367434229676942,
        0.03519879130067284
      ],
      "n_train": 403,
      "parameters_including_variance": 4,
      "residual_sd_dex": 0.2175462655709183,
      "training_log_likelihood": 44.386907638128946,
      "training_aicc": -80.67331276369508,
      "test_rmse_dex": 0.17758117354566982,
      "test_mse_dex2": 0.031535073197857304,
      "test_bias_dex": -0.0005451445684881683,
      "training_delta_aicc": 0.0,
      "training_akaike_weight": 0.5054125385559523
    },
    "M1_20kg": {
      "coefficients": [
        0.4307526326807726,
        0.6914440524929752,
        0.33465308147129835
      ],
      "n_train": 403,
      "parameters_including_variance": 4,
      "residual_sd_dex": 0.21821104279262293,
      "training_log_likelihood": 43.157299215999046,
      "training_aicc": -78.21409591943528,
      "test_rmse_dex": 0.1792987462728764,
      "test_mse_dex2": 0.03214804041502531,
      "test_bias_dex": -0.0027173425207448476,
      "lower_slope": 0.6914440524929752,
      "upper_slope": 1.0260971339642735,
      "slope_change": 0.33465308147129835,
      "training_delta_aicc": 2.4592168442597995,
      "training_akaike_weight": 0.14778619216031416
    }
  },
  "five_fold_family_cv": {
    "folds": [
      {
        "fold": 0,
        "n_test": 116,
        "test_rmse_dex": {
          "M0": 0.18715306901014067,
          "M1_10kg": 0.17027215567819623,
          "M2_quadratic": 0.16993831087538072,
          "M1_20kg": 0.17091193023648965
        }
      },
      {
        "fold": 1,
        "n_test": 99,
        "test_rmse_dex": {
          "M0": 0.32891565903906345,
          "M1_10kg": 0.3242740470167796,
          "M2_quadratic": 0.3219497190707745,
          "M1_20kg": 0.3255038816798304
        }
      },
      {
        "fold": 2,
        "n_test": 120,
        "test_rmse_dex": {
          "M0": 0.209674273045126,
          "M1_10kg": 0.20346854542766593,
          "M2_quadratic": 0.20277100651448862,
          "M1_20kg": 0.20398831678692517
        }
      },
      {
        "fold": 3,
        "n_test": 71,
        "test_rmse_dex": {
          "M0": 0.15750104240894658,
          "M1_10kg": 0.15478535101390528,
          "M2_quadratic": 0.15552654076074207,
          "M1_20kg": 0.15305521257893084
        }
      },
      {
        "fold": 4,
        "n_test": 167,
        "test_rmse_dex": {
          "M0": 0.17463607784825233,
          "M1_10kg": 0.17421921036755525,
          "M2_quadratic": 0.1791301651949515,
          "M1_20kg": 0.17421624634372515
        }
      }
    ],
    "pooled_out_of_fold_rmse_dex": {
      "M0": 0.2166837235341579,
      "M1_10kg": 0.21100268349911946,
      "M2_quadratic": 0.21145809524695983,
      "M1_20kg": 0.2113822285487288
    },
    "scope": "Sensitivity across all families; does not create a new untouched test set."
  },
  "additive_error_sensitivity": {
    "M0": {
      "converged": true,
      "coefficients": [
        -0.04235337901448795,
        1.0917314419634065
      ],
      "test_rmse_watt": 40.46494524869356,
      "test_rmse_dex": 0.9225324545353148
    },
    "M1_10kg": {
      "converged": true,
      "coefficients": [
        0.5012434845881328,
        0.5366024686548898,
        0.5636025055519606
      ],
      "test_rmse_watt": 40.66899865135666,
      "test_rmse_dex": 0.32183819656981727
    },
    "M2_quadratic": {
      "converged": true,
      "coefficients": [
        0.5307022364206789,
        0.5321669929196837,
        0.13299665252865162
      ],
      "test_rmse_watt": 42.23497276470478,
      "test_rmse_dex": 0.5853125522346099
    },
    "M1_20kg": {
      "converged": true,
      "coefficients": [
        0.4981027634245601,
        0.6634310953739608,
        0.444039905689835
      ],
      "test_rmse_watt": 40.826757271552474,
      "test_rmse_dex": 0.22628425718100406
    }
  },
  "limitations": [
    "No tree-based PGLS",
    "Temperature and source-method confounding",
    "Unknown within-species measurement uncertainty",
    "Cross-compilation overlap audit required before claiming replication"
  ],
  "environment": {
    "python": "3.12.14",
    "numpy": "2.3.5"
  }
}